What Now?
Jul 20th, 2009 by pedestrian
A lot of us, Iranians and non-Iranians, inside or outside, are asking: What now?
A group of Iranian intellectuals and activists met at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies for a three day seminar to discuss recent events in Iran.
Among the panelists was prolific Iranian journalist, Masoud Behnoud. I think he gives a very pragmatic analysis. I don’t wholeheartedly agree with it, but they are especially necessary for those outside of Iran who may be far from Iranian reality.
Here is a translation of the first part of his talk:
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If we look at the history of Iranian social/political movements, we will see a weakness that emerges over and over again.
If you go and look back at Sur-e-Esrafil [a progressive daily newspaper estabalished in 1905 before the constitutional revolution, whose editor, Jahangir-Khan Sur-e-Esrafil was later executed], in the second week of its publication, you will read an article that states: “this movement that has begun [the movement for the constitutional revolution] shows that every last Iranian is in quest of freedom and will not rest until full freedom is achieved for all of Iran. There can no longer be tyranny and injustice towards these people.”
In that time, 97% of Iranians were illiterate but Sur-e-Esrafil believed that every last Iranian is in quest of freedom. But many of those Iranians didn’t even know what the quest for freedom was. But, these words are nice words, so people like saying them. I don’t mean any disrespect to the people of Iran, but I don’t believe that anywhere in this world, not here in England, not in the United States, a quest for freedom exists in every last one of the people. It seems that if we distribute money and goods to people - something that happened during the first term of Mr. Ahmadinejad - we can do pretty much whatever we like.
You see, the Iranian ruling system, especially what you call the hardliners, are much stronger and much more rooted than you would like to think. A few thousand people in the streets or at the Friday prayers can not attempt to destabilize or change them so that religion will be isolated from politics, the power of the supreme leader will be taken away, ad infinitum. This is not how things work.
What is achievable in this route is related to consistency. A consistency that might take hold within people. I say “might” because I am deeply afraid of romanticizing this current situation. That fact that this movement’s expectations and goals sometimes go above and beyond any attainable achievement frightens me. Sometimes the expectations go so high that even if we were to assume that 90% of Iranians were working towards these ends, they would still be impossible.
One of the things that has constently threatened and damaged Iranian movements is this high expectation. Go and read the newspapers from the days of Mohammad Mossadeq to see how highly his supporters thought of him. This wide praise for Mr. Ahmadinejad that asks of him to take control of global management [newspapers close to Ahmadinejad have written of this extensively in the past four years and he has spoken of it himself] is a part of Iranian society too. This is a mentality that believes because Ahmaidnejad has been able to spread some of the oil revenues in a far away village - at a time when oil was $100 a barrel - he can take over global management. If you looked at Ahmadinejad’s campaign documentary, you can see a house he built for a Baluch woman over and over again. I wrote in a past article: when did we say that with $300 BILLION DOLLARS of oil revenues, it is impossible to build a house for a Baluch woman?
The point is this: we should learn a very important lesson from the recent election. Three hundred billion dollars have been spent, not including all the other resources, and if, even 50% of the Iranian people are now gravitating towards a particular side [Ahmadinejad] it should come as no surprise to us.
We have no choice but to abstain from words that sound chic and elegant. We must keep from dreamy, lovely-dovey words that are impossible to carry out.
I am deeply frightenined if we come out and say that in this information age, censorship is no longer possible. How does that make sense? It is possible. It is. Didn’t you see it in the past twenty days? They closed down a society of 75 million people. Not more than a few film clips got to the hands of the world media. They were successful in closing down CNN and the BBC. Why should we kid ourselvse in thinking that they weren’t successful? Only one film clip, of the death of Neda, got out. What about all the other deaths and occurances? Don’t think that all people in Iran have access to high-speed internet and can jump around anywhere they please online. It is dangerous to exaggerate the power of Iranians for dissipating correct information. Attributing this characteristic to a society which is devoid of it can be dangerous.
If this goes on longer, and in two months, people [in Iran] go home and surrender like they did after the 28th of Mordad [the coup that ousted prime minster Mossadeq] this should come as no surprise. Why would you be surprised? People must live their lives. We can sit here in London and talk all we want about the separation of religion and state, decreasing the powers of the supreme leader. But that’s not the reality in Iran.
We must move away from deceit. We should not kid ourselves. We must see that each side has a large following and a good number of supporters.
8 Responses to “What Now?”
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Historical parallels are irrelevant here. The internet is taking youth past nationalism and theocracy. Americans are helping out. An Israeli declared he had” fallen in love” with the Iranian people becasue of their protests This is how humanity will evolve. You are afraid that’s why you cant see radical change occurring. The defense of the pessimist is always that that they are “realist”. Perhaps you have a deep rooted Fear Of Freedom.
BTW many many clips of dying protestors have been sent around the world. Horrific pictures of Basiji torture have been sent around the world.
Fascism can only survive if its modus operandi is secret.
Julie, as I wrote, I don’t agree with is analysis totally. It is more pessimistic than I could believe.
But he does raise good points, even though he may take them too far.
No, we didn’t see a lot of what went on in smaller towns. In Shiraz and Esfahan maybe, and even there not completely, but not in many other cities whose names were never even heard. We didn’t see the absolute horror that went on even in the dormitories that were evacuated immediately.
For every image we saw, there were ten images that we never got to see. Horrific images of what the basij had down was mixed with videos with no times or dates or even locations. I personally saw an album going all around facebook concerning recent atrocities that actually belonged to the earthquake in Bam six years ago. That is not to say that violent, atrocious acts were not committed, but that its totality was never witnessed. And the fact that thanks to the American mainstream media, they were so entwined with inaccuracy and falsity, they were discredited by many.
The youth you speak of are not a majority. At least, we don’t know enough to make that claim. And that’s what he is warning of. I’m not afraid of radical change occurring, but I AM afraid of smaller changes being taken for radical change. That is not meant to discredit that smaller change … in fact, the consistency in that small occurrence with time can lead to something big.
I don’t agree with him, and some Iranians on iranian.com do not agree with him either. I do not know enough farsi to follow what he said at SOAS but I can read.
In February he wrote : There was a time when the government could control the media as it wished, but that time has âpassed. It may be possible to control journalists for a short time, but to silence them forever- that âis an impossible wish.â
Now he writes: I am deeply frightenined if we come out and say that in this information age, censorship is no longer possible. How does that make sense? It is possible. It is. Didnât you see it in the past twenty days? They closed down a society of 75 million people. Not more than a few film clips got to the hands of the world media………………….Only one film clip, of the death of Neda, got out.
That is strange. I saw many film clips, but they were not from BBC or CNN or al Jazeera. And that’s the clue to the tone of his speech. He is not sure who will win and how long it will take so he prefers to be safe. I am talking about safety of his work. He is working in BBC, he is a journalist, if he will be prohibited from going back to Iran he will loose ability to earn his bread. Couple of years ago he was in jail, I am sure he does not want to go again to jail. Also he is now older, not so young. So he prefer to do what is safe.
Now, you wrote that youth Julie Anderson speak of are not a majority. That at least, “we donât know enough to make that claim”. But at the same time we don’t know if they are not the majority. We don’t know. Period.
What we know (you, and I, and most of us) is that majority of Iranian youth live in the cities. And majority of them have satellite TV. If they do not have satellite TV then their friends have it. It is the same with internet. If someone does not have internet their friends have it , or there is internet at the closest internet cafe. .
What about the country-side? Country-side also consists of Baluchis who usually are against government in Tehran, and Kurdish people who would like to learn kurdish at schools and would like that government in Tehran invested more money in Kurdistan. Are they supporting Ahmadinejad - you bet, they don’t.
And to be perfectly true I think that Mr. Behnoud is not quite wrong - majority of Iranians do not think of separation of state and religion, or decreasing powers of Khamenei, or even about Mousavi. What they think about is jobs, money, housing, marriage, corruption, promises. They see broken promises and see corruption and see no jobs, no money, no marriage. And that is main reason why you see that even hijabi girls are dressing in green. Because all of them care about their well-being
Majority of movements go beyond what leaders of the movement are able to offer. Particularly in the Middle East. But that is also strength of the present movement, because the government of Iran is corrupted and what Mr. Behnoud wanted, what Khatami wanted, what Mousavi wants is just a band-aid. Unfortunately Iran does not need band-aid, is needs major political and economical changes. Without political and (especially) major economical changes now, without serious fight with corruption, without creation of new jobs, in a couple of years (in 4, in 5, in 10) what Iran will get will be really, truly, revolutionary, bloody change. … provided, of course, that it will not get a bomb. Because in that case it might get bombed and all Iranians will give their support to Islamic Republic of Iran with its corruption and religiously sanctioned government.
Ella, I didn’t translate this to support Behnoud’s politics - of which I know very little. If he has been this inconsistent, then he has no one but himself to answer to and it is not my place to defend him.
And like I said, I don’t agree with it entirely. But I think it does serve as a good warning for many whom I see these days who seem to be getting ahead of themselves. You are right, and that is exactly what I wrote: we don’t know. So we must strategize by keeping in mind both the knowns and the unknowns.
I think you too are getting ahead of yourself: It is the same with internet. If someone does not have internet their friends have it , or there is internet at the closest internet cafe.
I come from a town in Iran which is exactly as you describe. But right in the vicinity of that town, there is another one in which the rules you write of do not hold at all.
And there are many minorities who may not support Ahmadinejad. But many more that do. Again, while not wanting to clap in unison with Behnoud, I think he does draw our attention to many factors we must be cautious of. We must stop generalizing and I see a lot of Iranians doing that right now.
We are at least 15 million people. That’s not a small number. IF even a smaller number are pragmatic enough and consistent enough, great shifts can occur in our society. It’s all about strategy and consistence.
In the end, I see his lecture as a good warning, not a good blueprint.
Pedestrian
You are also complaining that some of the images actually belonged to earthquake in Bam six years ago. I have not seen that but the same you can say about Israeli war in Lebanon where some video clips were arranged by pro-Hizbulahi people and put on you tube and in MSM. The same you can say about Palestinian-Israeli conflict where many terrible scenes are arranged by well taught Hamas and spread all over the world by al Jazeera.The same you can say about Chechnia or about what is going in in China.
You are complaining about inaccuracy and falsity of American mainstream media, what about Arab media? Are they better? And BBC was better? or al Arabiya? or PressTV? or XInhua?
During these kind of times there are always inaccuracies.
Do you think that your own bloggers, Iranian, were more accurate? They spread the some of the falsity and inaccuracy which was repeated by others.
BTW I am not a fan of MSM - neither arabic nor american. Nor, Chinese. Because Chinese and Russian MSM also were spreading lies in their countries about what is happening in Iran, didn’t they?
You are right. I spoke of the American mainstream media. But I didn’t say a word about the Russian, Chinese, Arab, etc … then how can you be so sure of my opinion about these other news outlets? (I don’t even care to know about the Chinese or the Russians. My own backyard is filled with slime as is.)
Al Jazeera, who I find more balanced and fair on many issues, took a funny stance on Iran: they constantly played it out as Rafsanjani vs. the leader. They twisted the story in a very subtle, macabre way and of course that goes to show that they too have their own agendas.
If the state media in Iran had a shred of decency, we wouldn’t have an excuse to run off to these other hideous warmongers anyway.
But now that you mention it, there were Iranian bloggers (especially in Persian, Naj is the only English-language blogger I know of who stuck by the same rules) who behaved with much, much integrity in the days following the election. With much more integrity than the big media in the United States. It’s not about inaccuracies that are ripe especially when there are such severe limitations on journalists in Iran.
I’ve seen CNN even when there were no press limitations in Iran and it was no better. So sorry, but their pro-war, pro-perfidy, pro-falsity agendas have nothing to do with the current situation.
Pedestrian
Do you mean pro-war with Iran or pro-war with iraq? If pro-war with Iraq then all american MSM were pro-war with Iraq. At the beginning. Only later some of MSM changed their mind.
Regarding pro-war with Iran then I do not agree with you, I do not think CNN was pro-war with Iran, quite opposite. I think that they were sometimes so pro-ahmadinejad that they were sickening.
I think that it was the MSM (I mean newspapers) who were talking every couple of months about the bomb and the war and that Israel who will bomb Iran. Afterwards some people in Iranian blogosphere and outside Iranian blogosphere were going up in arms and demonstrating against future war. And of course nothing happened, because everything was blown up out of proportion by MSM, some American websites, Iranian bloggers and so on and so forth. And that happened couple of times. In fact every second month or so.
However, I really think American MSM are not too bad, compared with non-American media. I know that looking from US point of view you might think American MSM are awful and false but others are much, much worse.
PS. I talked only about Iranian bloggers blogging in English. You may be quite right when you assert that Iranian bloggers (in Persian) behave with integrity. So I do apologize.
I meant “pro-war” as in “warmonger”. And I’m not claiming that IRIB is any better than the American mainstream media. But at least, it is state owned and state controlled, with no doubts attached. The MSM claim righteousness of the “free world” and “total honesty” while they are indeed owned, ruled, paid and fed by the corporate/political elite and their interests.